3 Aug · 13:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JL
🇨🇿Jan Lovl
ELO 1552
FormLWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lovl
TK
🇨🇿Tomas Krcil
ELO 1513
FormLWWLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Lovl
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.