3 Aug · 12:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
TK
🇨🇿Tomas Kindl
ELO 1490
FormLWLLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Benes
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1556
FormWWLLW
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kindl🌟Kindl goes over total as underdog 78% (27)
Fair odds · Benes
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~80 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+66
H2H11-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+66)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-10)