3 Aug · 08:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1486
FormWWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Sindler
JS
🇨🇿Jaroslav Sindler
ELO 1507
FormWLLWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sturma🌟Sturma covers set handicap as underdog 72% (46)
Fair odds · Sindler
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+21
H2H44-42
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.