3 Aug · 12:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AL
🇨🇿Ales Langer
ELO 1489
FormLWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sulc
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sulc
ELO 1529
FormLWLWW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Langer🌟Langer covers set handicap as underdog 62% (98)
Fair odds · Sulc
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H32-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.