3 Aug · 09:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
FM
🇨🇿Filip Mandrysz
ELO 1566
FormWWWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Mandrysz
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1486
FormWWWLW
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sturma🌟Sturma covers set handicap as underdog 72% (46)
Fair odds · Mandrysz
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+80
H2H27-23
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+80)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (27-23)