3 Aug · 13:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇨🇿Michal Macurak
ELO 1542
FormLLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Moravec
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1574
FormWWWLW
47%
53%
🌟Macurak covers set handicap as underdog 73% (26)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H7-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.