3 Aug · 08:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Marcin Stepien
ELO 1634
FormLLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Stepien
SR
🇨🇿Szymon Radlo
ELO 1583
FormLWWWW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Stepien
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 52% · 1.92· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~81 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+51
H2H28-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.