3 Aug · 07:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BM
🇨🇿Bartlomiej Molka
ELO 1502
FormLLLWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Lysakowski
ML
🇨🇿Michal Lysakowski
ELO 1613
FormWWWWW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Lysakowski
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 65% · 1.54· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~81 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+111
H2H54-35
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+111)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (54-35)