3 Aug · 08:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PG
🇨🇿Pawel Gola
ELO 1603
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lysakowski
ML
🇨🇿Michal Lysakowski
ELO 1616
FormWWWWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Lysakowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.03· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~81 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H79-98
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.