3 Aug · 17:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MD
🇨🇿Milan Dvorak
ELO 1491
FormLWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Moravec
PM
🇨🇿Petr Moravec
ELO 1541
FormWWWWW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dvorak🌟Moravec rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (35)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+50
H2H16-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.