3 Aug · 19:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PM
🇨🇿Petr Moravec
ELO 1541
FormWWWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Moravec
JH
🇨🇿Jan Hendrych
ELO 1538
FormLWLWW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Hendrych🌟Hendrych covers set handicap as underdog 69% (61)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+3
H2H11-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.