3 Aug · 22:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1464
FormLLWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Matus
MD
🇨🇿Miroslav Dolezal
ELO 1460
FormLLLWL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Matus
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+4
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.