3 Aug · 16:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1464
FormWLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Tlusty
MT
🇨🇿Milan Tlusty
ELO 1513
FormWWLWW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kral🌟Kral goes over total as underdog 69% (131)
Fair odds · Tlusty
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H52-25
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.