3 Aug · 18:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1464
FormWLWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Dvorak
JD
🇨🇿Jakub Dvorak
ELO 1521
FormWWWWW
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kral🌟Dvorak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (36)
Fair odds · Dvorak
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+57
H2H31-19
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+57)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (31-19)