3 Aug · 18:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MD
🇨🇿Milan Dvorak
ELO 1491
FormLWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Dvorak
JC
🇨🇿Jiri Cerny
ELO 1460
FormLLLLL
53%
47%
🌟Dvorak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 25% (32)
Fair odds · Dvorak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H17-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.