3 Aug · 22:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PM
🇨🇿Patrik Marsalek
ELO 1508
FormWLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Vitasek
DV
🇨🇿Daniel Vitasek
ELO 1529
FormLWLWW
48%
52%
🌟Vitasek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 22% (41)
Fair odds · Vitasek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+21
H2H3-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.