4 Aug · 08:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1494
FormWWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Mandrysz
FM
🇨🇿Filip Mandrysz
ELO 1543
FormLLWLW
46%
54%
🌟Sturma covers set handicap as underdog 72% (47)
Fair odds · Mandrysz
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H28-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.