4 Aug · 12:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MT
🇨🇿Milan Tlusty
ELO 1528
FormWWLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Varecka
OV
🇨🇿Ondrej Varecka
ELO 1618
FormLWWWW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Varecka
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 72% · 1.38· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+90
H2H9-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+90)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-2)