4 Aug · 10:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DV
🇨🇿David Vesecky
ELO 1720
FormLWLLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Vesecky
MP
🇨🇿Michal Prochazka
ELO 1609
FormLWWLL
59%
41%
🔥 Underdog lean · Prochazka🌟Prochazka covers set handicap as underdog 79% (24)
Fair odds · Vesecky
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+111
H2H2-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+111)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-1)