4 Aug · 13:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LM
🇨🇿Ladislav Moravec
ELO 1444
FormLWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kral
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1467
FormLWWLW
48%
52%
🌟Kral rarely covers set handicap as favourite 20% (46)
Fair odds · Kral
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H4-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.