4 Aug · 14:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OV
🇨🇿Ondrej Varecka
ELO 1618
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Varecka
AR
🇨🇿Adam Martin Rek
ELO 1601
FormWWWWL
51%
49%
🌟Rek covers set handicap as underdog 75% (32)
Fair odds · Varecka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.