4 Aug · 15:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1467
FormLWWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Zahradka
ZZ
🇨🇿Zdenek Zahradka
ELO 1473
FormLWLWW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Zahradka🌟Kral goes over total as underdog 69% (131)
Fair odds · Zahradka
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H77-63
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.