4 Aug · 12:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MG
🇨🇿Mateusz Galus
ELO 1576
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Gola
PG
🇨🇿Pawel Gola
ELO 1611
FormWWLWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Gola
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H30-47
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.