4 Aug · 16:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PJ
🇨🇿Patrik Jokiel
ELO 1436
FormWWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Zustina
LZ
🇨🇿Lukas Zustina
ELO 1454
FormLLLLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jokiel🌟Zustina rarely covers set handicap as favourite 7% (14)
Fair odds · Zustina
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+18
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.