4 Aug · 14:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PG
🇨🇿Pawel Gola
ELO 1618
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stepien
MS
🇨🇿Marcin Stepien
ELO 1629
FormWWLWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Stepien
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.84· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~80 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H131-59
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.