4 Aug · 16:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DS
🇨🇿David Sarganek
ELO 1643
FormLWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Niezgoda
RN
🇨🇿Rostislav Niezgoda
ELO 1666
FormLLWWW
48%
52%
🌟Sarganek covers set handicap as underdog 65% (48)
Fair odds · Niezgoda
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H45-38
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.