4 Aug · 16:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RK
🇨🇿Rene Kowal
ELO 1623
FormWWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Niezgoda
RN
🇨🇿Rostislav Niezgoda
ELO 1666
FormLLWWW
46%
54%
🌟Kowal covers set handicap as underdog 68% (44)
Fair odds · Niezgoda
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+43
H2H33-31
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.