4 Aug · 17:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DS
🇨🇿David Sarganek
ELO 1643
FormLWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Sarganek
RK
🇨🇿Rene Kowal
ELO 1623
FormWWWWL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kowal🌟Kowal covers set handicap as underdog 68% (44)
Fair odds · Sarganek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~73 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H24-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.