4 Aug · 22:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MN
🇨🇿Michal Nemec
ELO 1420
FormLLWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Dlask
MD
🇨🇿Marek Dlask
ELO 1489
FormWWWLW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Dlask
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+69
H2H20-17
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+69)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (20-17)