4 Aug · 18:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SM
🇨🇿Simon Matousch
ELO 1457
FormLWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Cibik
PC
🇨🇿Pavel Cibik
ELO 1499
FormLLWLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Matousch🌟Cibik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (76)
Fair odds · Cibik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+42
H2H22-28
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.