4 Aug · 20:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1466
FormLWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Matus
MD
🇨🇿Miroslav Dolezal
ELO 1443
FormLLLWL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dolezal🌟Dolezal covers set handicap as underdog 67% (12)
Fair odds · Matus
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H3-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.