4 Aug · 18:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇨🇿Michal Cesak
ELO 1574
FormLWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Cesak
VK
🇨🇿Vojtech Koutnik
ELO 1535
FormLWLLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Koutnik🌟Koutnik covers set handicap as underdog 70% (54)
Fair odds · Cesak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.