5 Aug · 14:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AR
🇨🇿Adam Martin Rek
ELO 1609
FormWWLLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Vesecky
DV
🇨🇿David Vesecky
ELO 1725
FormWWWLL
41%
59%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rek🌟Rek covers set handicap as underdog 76% (33)
Fair odds · Vesecky
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
19%
0-3
18%
3-1
15%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+116
H2H8-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+116)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-6)