5 Aug · 12:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LJ
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Jr
ELO 1494
FormWLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jr
TS
🇨🇿Tadeas Slivka
ELO 1481
FormWWWWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Jr
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.