5 Aug · 11:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1447
FormLLWLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Tlusty
MT
🇨🇿Milan Tlusty
ELO 1537
FormWLWWW
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Filipek🌟Filipek covers set handicap as underdog 67% (110)
Fair odds · Tlusty
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+90
H2H21-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+90)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (21-7)