5 Aug · 14:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Knazik
ELO 1540
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Dvorak
FD
🇨🇿Frantisek Dvorak
ELO 1553
FormWLWWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Dvorak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H20-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.