5 Aug · 09:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1467
FormWWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kral
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1447
FormLLWLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Filipek🌟Kral rarely covers set handicap as favourite 22% (50)
Fair odds · Kral
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H38-40
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.