5 Aug · 16:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OS
🇨🇿Oldrich Stehlik
ELO 1623
FormLLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Stehlik
MM
🇨🇿Martin Mastera
ELO 1577
FormWWLLL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Stehlik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H17-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.