5 Aug · 16:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FK
🇨🇿Filip Karel
ELO 1670
FormWWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Karel
DL
🇨🇿Dominik Lengal
ELO 1658
FormWLWWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Karel
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H7-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.