5 Aug · 13:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ML
🇨🇿Michal Lysakowski
ELO 1634
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stepien
MS
🇨🇿Marcin Stepien
ELO 1644
FormLWWWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Stepien
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H125-100
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.