5 Aug · 18:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DL
🇨🇿Dominik Lengal
ELO 1658
FormWLWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Lengal
MM
🇨🇿Martin Mastera
ELO 1577
FormWWLLL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Lengal
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 72% · 1.38· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+81
H2H24-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+81)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (24-8)