5 Aug · 20:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VM
🇨🇿Vojtech Molin
ELO 1462
FormLWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Molin
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1420
FormLWLWW
53%
47%
🌟Ogrocki stays under total as underdog 68% (38)
Fair odds · Molin
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+42
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.