5 Aug · 22:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1420
FormLWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Ogrocki
JV
🇨🇿Jiri Vanous
ELO 1403
FormWLLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Ogrocki
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H18-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.