5 Aug · 17:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JR
🇨🇿Jonas Rak
ELO 1548
FormWWWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Sarganek
DS
🇨🇿David Sarganek
ELO 1639
FormLWLWL
43%
57%
Fair odds · Sarganek
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+91
H2H7-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+91)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-6)