5 Aug · 22:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kabelka
ELO 1447
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kabelka
MC
🇨🇿Miroslav Cyrus
ELO 1431
FormLLWWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Kabelka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H1-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.