5 Aug · 16:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FC
🇨🇿Frantisek Chaloupka
ELO 1643
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Chaloupka
JS
🇨🇿Jan Skvrna
ELO 1628
FormWWLWW
51%
49%
🌟Skvrna covers set handicap as underdog 92% (13)
Fair odds · Chaloupka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H10-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.