5 Aug · 17:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VJ
🇨🇿Vaclav Hejda Jr
ELO 1525
FormWLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Jr
MD
🇨🇿Milan Dvorak
ELO 1473
FormWLLLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dvorak🌟Jr rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (56)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+52
H2H8-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.