5 Aug · 20:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PJ
🇨🇿Patrik Jokiel
ELO 1451
FormWLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Jokiel
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1420
FormLWLWW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Ogrocki🌟Ogrocki stays under total as underdog 68% (38)
Fair odds · Jokiel
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H8-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.