5 Aug · 17:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇨🇿Martin Mastera
ELO 1577
FormWWLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Karel
FK
🇨🇿Filip Karel
ELO 1670
FormWWWWW
42%
58%
Fair odds · Karel
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+93
H2H9-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+93)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-7)