5 Aug · 18:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JD
🇨🇿Jakub Dvorak
ELO 1521
FormLLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Dvorak
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Melichar
ELO 1508
FormLWLLW
51%
49%
🌟Dvorak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (39)
Fair odds · Dvorak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H9-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.